Your mindful infographic of the day vis a vis the impending Russian invasion of Ukraine. One suspects the Russians could (and will) take most of Novorossiya as well as Kiev within a month—that is, unless there is substantial assistance from NATO.
Biden is proposing sanctions, a dangerous gambit that long-term pushes Russia into the arms and orbit of China. The sword is double-edged for the Russians—sure they may retake the Ukraine (in part or in whole), but probably not all of it.
While Western economic sanctions will hurt for a time, NordStream 1 and 2 will continue to be absolutely necessary for NATO allies such as Germany. To make matters worse, the opportunity for the Chinese to secure their “near abroad” in Russia might very well prove irresistible over the course of 50 years.
For policymakers, the question of a “strong Russia” vs. a “weak Russia” is an imperative. A weak Russia in a post-Putin environment becomes Yugoslavia with nukes across 1/6th of the globe. A strong Russia may be a regional hegemon potentially hostile to the European Union and NATO—but only if Europe and America continue to treat Russia like the Soviets of old.
The old tripartite alliance of the United States, European Union and Russian Federation proposed in the early naughties seems like the most viable approach… but so long as the EU continues to be a stalking horse for NATO and pushes into Russian red lines in the Ukraine, Syria, the Caucasus, etc. the Russians will continue to believe that NATO—an alliance designed to oppose Russia—will remain a hostile threat to their very existence as a nation.
Therein lies the argument. The Russians are prepared to bleed Russians for Tiblisi, Kiev, Damascus, etc. in a way that Americans are not prepared to bleed.
Nor are the Germans or the French.
More outrageous is the willingness to bleed Poles for the Ukraine (as if our allies were expendable)—yet to what possible end would we commit to the defense of the Ukraine unless NATO intends to send our sons and daughters into combat to preserve the 1994 Budapest Agreement and back up the Maidan revolution (or coup against a legitimately elected if corrupt government in the eyes of the Russians).
Which raises the immediate question of whether the United States should be engaging in “democratic uprisings” unless we intend to back such movements by force of arms. With the notable exception of Tunisia, all of the Obama-era “democratic uprisings” have descended into bloodshed and a return to the status quo—none more than Syria.
Yet we don’t hear that we are on the brink of war anywhere in the American media. Omicron, inflation, Christmas shopping… this has been warming up for a month. Once the ground freezes solid? This becomes the sort of war the Russians have fought before…
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.