A new Washington Post and ABC News poll shows Republican candidates with a 10-point lead over Democrats nationwide. The GOP’s advantage is the biggest that the party has held with registered voters in the poll’s 40 year history.
Keep in mind, registered voters are a group that leans left.
The Biggest GOP Lead in 110 Polls
As Hot Air reports:
Technically, ABC/WaPo has had at least one poll in its history that looked worse for Democrats than this one does. That came in 2010, the year of the red tsunami, when they found Republicans ahead 53/40 on the generic ballot. But that poll was conducted late in the cycle, in early September 2010 when voters were beginning to make up their minds about the midterms. And that was a poll of likely voters, reflecting the growing probability that GOP turnout in November would be much higher than that of Democrats.
Today’s poll comes a full year out from Election Day. And it’s a poll of registered voters, a group that normally skews more Democratic. (The September 2010 ABC/WaPo poll had Republicans up just two points among RVs.) At this stage of the 2010 cycle, most pollsters either had Democrats ahead on the generic ballot or Republicans on top by four points or so. And in 2014, which brought more big gains for Republicans in Congress, the party never touched +10 on the generic ballot in any public poll.
But It Gets Worse
But it gets worse for Dems. The GOP may lead by 10 nationally but that national number includes many overwhelmingly blue districts, of course. What happens when you focus only on purple Senate battleground states (Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin)? Big yikes:
Sub-40 approval ratings for Biden overall and on the two key issues equals a *23-point* Republican advantage on the generic ballot in swing states. And remember that the shining lesson from last November is that pollsters tend to underestimate support for GOP candidates, probably because a meaningful share of righties in the U.S. now refuse to answer the phone when a pollster calls. It’s conceivable that the gory numbers in this survey are underestimating the extent of the Republican lead.
The poll’s margin of error is +/-3.5 percent.
The silver lining for Democrats is that voters like President Biden’s Build Back Better agenda. At least on paper. Fifty-nine percent of voters worry that Biden is doing too much to grow government. That cognitive dissonance makes it seem like voters like Biden’s proposals in the abstract, but not as much in reality.
Do you think that this poll is an outlier or are Democrats headed for an electoral wipeout of biblical proportions? Tell us in the comments below and spread the word on social media!